According to estimates from the UN, Iran has expelled approximately 450,000 Afghans since early June – coinciding with an exchange between Iran and Israel that resulted in a military confrontation – creating what experts describe as an ever-escalating humanitarian crisis. Deportations has escalated during a 16-day stretch as Tehran cites national security issues among regional instability concerns as justification.
Deportations Increase WARNING The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reports that since June 1 nearly 450,000 Afghans have returned home, with deportations numbers peaking at more than 30,000 people a day during certain times of day, which exceeds that reported by Wikipedia for France 24.
UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) confirms that over 366,000 Afghans were expelled from Iran in 2025 alone, with an increase after renewed hostilities between Iran and Israel (The Guardian +15
AP News +15)
Tehran insists it is only targeting undocumented migrants during its ongoing crackdown, yet critics maintain this amounts to mass expulsion; Afghans have even been accused without evidence of spying for Israel or collaborating with it, according to Reuters.
Humanitarian Fallout
Returned Afghans are arriving home in increasingly dire conditions: homelessness, hunger and exhaustion as well as widespread family separations. Women traveling solo risk violating Taliban-era restrictions once back, according to NCR Iran + The Guardian + Reuters.
The International Red Cross has warned of up to one million more Iranian nationals being deported back into Afghanistan by 2025, which threatens to overwhelm Afghanistan’s thin and underfunded aid systems, according to Ariana News and Reuters reports.
Already, only 10% of IFRC’s $31 million emergency appeal has been funded; UN’s Afghan Humanitarian Response Plan also falls far short of need-based funding needs, according to Reuters.
Iran launched a mass deportation campaign after setting a July 6 deadline for undocumented Afghans living there without documentation to leave or face arrest, using raids, checkpoints and labor inspections as measures of enforcement (Wikipedia +2) [The Guardian +2].
Timing suggests an association between rising Iran-Israel tensions, including drone and missile exchanges, and an acceleration in expulsions (AP News +6 for example, Reuters +6, Ariana News), and their timing.
Iran claims that their operation of repatriating refugees gradually and dignifiedly is designed to ease economic burden, estimated at $10 billion annually in refugee support; however broader public hostility and security considerations appear to influence policy, according to RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty and Wikipedia respectively. Regional Reactions & Risks.
Afghanistan’s Taliban-run government has asked Iran to stop forcible deportations of people back home and warns that Afghanistan lacks the capacity to accommodate mass returns of forced deportees, according to Wikipedia and AP News reports.
Pakistan is taking similar actions and plans on expelling approximately one million Afghans by 2025 – amplifying regional displacement.
UN officials contend these operations violate refugee protections and heighten regional instability, fuelling resource scarcity, drought, and economic decline in Afghanistan. Without swift, funded international aid and coordinated diplomacy efforts in place to address this situation quickly, Afghanistan could experience further humanitarian and security catastrophe.
What Comes Next
Aid bottlenecks could intensify as funding remains inadequate and non-profit organizations cannot expand quickly enough.
Second-wave deportations is set to occur; Iran could expel up to 1 million additional Afghans before year’s end, increasing pressure from international bodies and human rights organizations for both nations to adhere to non-refoulement laws.
Afghan stability is at risk–continued mass return could compromise fragile governance, cause urban poverty and fuel Taliban factionalism.