Bangkok/Phnom Penh/Washington — July 25, 2025 — As violence escalates along disputed frontier regions between Thailand and Cambodia, analysts increasingly view their disagreement as part of a broader strategic contest between two U.S. allies with nuclear-capable military arsenals against smaller, Chinese-aligned rivals. They caution that structural military and geopolitical asymmetries increase risk of miscalculation leading to mismanagement or larger regional instability.
Thailand, designated a major non-NATO ally by the US, has dramatically ramped up operations using aircraft and air power to gain territorial advantage. On July 24, six F-16 fighter jets launched strikes against Cambodian military positions after Cambodia launched what Prayuth Thepsuthin termed as “war crimes”, such as firing BM-21 rockets onto Thai border towns and hospitals allegedly fired by Cambodian forces using rocket launchers from their military positions near Bangkok border towns and hospitals (Wikipedia +4 Newsweek +4)
Cambodia, one of China’s closest regional allies, relies mainly on ground forces and rocket artillery to defend against potential Thai border province attacks, due to limited air capacity. Experts note Cambodia’s close relationship with China stems from infrastructure, diplomatic, and military collaboration, such as Beijing supporting projects such as Ream naval base. Likewise, Australia is committed to working closely with Cambodia. Eventually though they need a partner like Australia as they provide security advice.
Conflict between Thailand and Cambodia stems from longstanding territorial issues dating back to French colonial-era mapping and an International Court of Justice ruling awarding Preah Vihear temple to Cambodia in 1962, but recent escalation is due more to political theatre: an leaked diplomatic phone call between Thailand’s suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and former Cambodian leader Hun Sen, with both sharing charged personal and nationalist undercurrents, escalated tensions on both sides, thus fueling domestic political issues within conflict itself; CSIS, TIME +9, The Washington Post +9 and CSIS +9
Since full-scale clashes began on July 24th, casualties on both sides have mounted steadily: in Thailand alone at least 16 civilians have been reported killed and over 130,000 evacuated while Cambodia reports soldier deaths as well as mass displacement. The violence marks one of the worst Thai-Cambodian conflicts for over a decade and spreads across at least 12 border hotspots; see for more. * Reuters + 3 (Wikipedia + The Guardian) for updates
Observers contend the contest between Thailand and Cambodia is both material and symbolic in nature, with Thailand’s superior air and naval capabilities showing their ability to dominate force projection. Meanwhile Cambodia relies on close ties with China for economic support as well as political cover; some observers feel this limits their strategic options further and increases suspicion among ASEAN states (Nickel, 2016; Economic Times 2015).
This dynamic has placed both countries squarely within the crosshairs of U.S.-China rivalry. Washington has pledged its support to Thailand but no specific steps have been taken towards increased military cooperation at this time. Likewise, China is offering to serve as Cambodia’s mediator during this crisis – something Thailand and other ASEAN states view suspiciously due to Beijing’s perceived bias and perceived partiality, according to The China-Global South Project of SCMP (scmp.com/the Guardian).
Today, the UN Security Council convened for an emergency session as global powers, including the US, China and ASEAN nations, joined in calling for an immediate ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia. Thailand refused third-party mediation, insisting instead on bilaterally resolving their differences directly while Cambodia sought international legal intervention through the International Court of Justice which has been blocked due to Bangkok refusing to recognize its jurisdiction (The Sun).
Analysts caution of an imbalanced military situation between Thailand and Cambodia that increases the chance of missteps. While Thailand might deter Cambodia with air power, Myanmar-style attacks or counterattacks could escalate quickly into conflict with Thailand retaliating by firing rockets over Thailand’s borders; Cambodia also poses serious threats against Thai civilian infrastructure through rocket salvoes that pose credible threats threatening Thai border areas and civilian infrastructure; making the situation particularly volatile according to The Economic Times.
As Southeast Asia’s conflict escalates, its strategic imperatives become even more prominent. Thailand leaning more toward U.S. allegiance while Cambodia deepening Chinese ties has intensified tensions along its border, potentially foreshadowing emerging fault lines in Southeast Asia if no effective diplomatic interventions take place to mitigate current and potential future crises.