As U.S. President Donald Trump tightens his grip through tariffs on countries importing Russian oil, global energy flows are shifting as India reduces demand while China increases purchases.
Shift in Global Oil Market
Chinese refineries have purchased 15 cargoes of Russian Urals crude slated for delivery between October and November 2025 from Indian refiners who are pulling back, according to reports from Reuters and TIME (The Economic Times), Reuters (+4), Bloomberg.com (+4).
Each tanker carries between 700,000 to 1 million barrels, showing how China has experienced an increased flow of oil from other sources.
India state refiners stopped buying Russian crude largely due to narrowing price discounts and increasing pressure from Washington, which threatened additional sanctions against countries purchasing Russian oil. [Al Jazeera and Reuters each provide +4].
Tariff Pressures and India’s Response
Trump’s tough stance has resulted in a punitive 50% tariff imposed on Indian exports–doubling from an initial 25% levy–explicitly linked to India’s continued purchases of Russian oil. These changes come into force immediately and directly affect India. When these decisions first came down from Washington they caused some consternation within India itself but now seem likely tied directly to Indian oil purchases from Russia and were also directly connected. For more details and analysis see The Times of India (+7) or Wikipedia+7 for further detail and Wikipedia +7 for additional background material on these events and developments
As part of his strategy, President Donald Trump has used tariffs as geopolitical weapons rather than simply trade instruments.
Peter Navarro, President Trump’s Trade Advisor, took steps to coerce India by calling their imports “opportunistic and deeply corrosive” of efforts aimed at isolating Russia. Its Bloomberg.com +15 (Al Jazeera +15, economictimes.indiatimes.com,).
Indian state refiners Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) made up their minds to resume purchasing Russian oil again after widening discounts of roughly $3 per barrel made grades such as Urals, Varandey and Siberian Light more economically attractive again.
Reuters
China Reaps Rewards
With India retreating, China–already Russia’s top energy purchaser–is increasingly snapping up discounted Russian barrels. Analysts note that this could reduce China’s reliance on more costly Middle Eastern crude, potentially exerting downward pressure on global benchmarks like Dubai crude prices.
Still, Chinese refineries face technical constraints: many lack the capacity to process Urals oil as their core feedstock. Furthermore, experts warn that Chinese demand may not fully offset India’s 600,000 to 700,000 barrel daily drop in imports; secondary U.S sanctions remain a possibility should China maintain or increase Russian oil purchases.
Reuters
Strategic Ripple Effects
This energy maneuveringscape is reflective of wider geopolitical tensions. President Trump’s use of tariffs as coercive diplomacy forces countries like India to adjust without undermining their energy security calculations, while China continues to take advantage of discounted Russian crude for strategic energy ties as well as reinforcing regional realignments amid Western sanctions.