July 6, 2025 — Rio de Janeiro/Beijing — Chinese President Xi Jinping has, for the first time since taking power in late 2012, chosen not to attend an in‑person BRICS summit. Instead, Premier Li Qiang will lead China’s delegation in Rio de Janeiro. Xi has cited a “scheduling conflict,” but analysts say his absence reflects deeper strategic and domestic considerations.
🇨🇳 Official Reason vs. Real Motives
China’s Foreign Ministry officially attributed Xi’s non-attendance to a scheduling overlap and noted he’s already met Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva twice this year—first at last November’s G20 in Brasilia and again in Beijing this past May
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. However, Brazilian officials reportedly saw the move as a subtle snub, highlighting nuanced diplomatic friction
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🏠 Beijing’s Domestic Pressures
Beyond optics, analysts point to pressing domestic demands. China is grappling with economic headwinds—continued property-market decline, persistent youth unemployment, and rising U.S. tariff threats. With the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–30) under preparation, Xi may have deemed the summit less critical than strengthening China’s homefront
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🌐 China’s BRICS Strategy
Despite skipping, Xi’s absence doesn’t signal disengagement. China still shoulders roughly 60% of BRICS’s combined nominal GDP, and internal voices stress that the bloc remains a vital platform for Beijing’s push for a multipolar world and resistance to Western dominance
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. According to NUS’s Chong Ja Ian, Xi’s no-show suggests “more pressing domestic priorities and perhaps a view that this BRICS summit would not entail a major breakthrough for the PRC”
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🤝 Power Shifts at the Table
Xi’s physical absence—and that of Russian President Vladimir Putin (who is participating remotely due to an ICC arrest warrant)—will shift the summit’s dynamics. With both leading autocrats missing, countries like India, Brazil, and South Africa gain influence. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to play a central role, drawing attention as BRICS grapples with its rapid expansion and ideological divergence
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⚖️ Risks to Cohesion and Influence
Analysts warn that Xi’s absence—alongside Putin’s—raises questions about BRICS’s unity and effectiveness. After expanding from five to eleven members, including Egypt, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, the bloc already struggles with internal divisions over Middle East geopolitics and institutional reform
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. The leadership vacuum may weaken its ability to advance joint initiatives like a BRICS-based development bank, a shared currency, or coordinated diplomatic stances.
🔮 What Lies Ahead
China plans to engage through Premier Li Qiang and its delegation in bilateral sideline talks and formal meetings. But the lack of Xi’s presence limits informal influence—crucial for sealing high-level agreements. Observers note that without Xi at the table, China’s voice may carry less weight in ad hoc negotiations
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Bottom line: Xi’s first summit absence signals a calculated trade-off—prioritizing decisive domestic governance and economic challenges over symbolic global stagecraft. Yet it also marks a pivotal moment for BRICS. With its architect staying home, the bloc enters the summit in flux: more decentralized, less cohesive, and increasingly contested by regional powers like India and Brazil.