Following recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes against Iranian military and strategic facilities, according to senior Iranian officials and regional analysts, Iran could shift towards openly developing weapons capability as a form of deterrence.
Iran has consistently denied any intention to develop nuclear weapons; however, recent events suggest a significant policy adjustment may be taking place. Multiple members of Iran’s parliament, including figures from its influential National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, have publicly demanded a “reconsideration” of Iran’s nuclear strategy due to what they described as unwarranted acts of aggression from both the US and Israel.
“These attacks demonstrate Iran cannot depend solely on diplomacy to ensure its sovereignty and security,” stated Mohammad Jamali, a senior lawmaker, during a televised parliamentary session. He suggested activating deterrence tools that will prevent further violations.
U.S. and Israeli forces recently conducted coordinated strikes against what they claimed were Iranian missile depots and underground research facilities in central Iran, with Washington and Tel Aviv characterizing their operation as an effort to disrupt weapons development and counter Iranian support for militant groups in the region. Iran denied these allegations and threatened retaliatory measures.
Iranian state media initially maintained that all nuclear infrastructure remained undamaged; however, satellite imagery analysis by independent agencies shows potential damage to at least one facility associated with Iran’s enrichment program. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) requested emergency access but Tehran has so far denied it.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not publicly addressed the possibility of nuclear arming, but his silence amid increasing domestic pressure is being seen by analysts as a signal that discussions may be underway within his government regarding this policy shift. A change could see Iran abandon its commitments under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), something it has done up until now at least on paper.
Dr. Leila Farzan, an expert on nuclear policy at the University of Geneva said “The risk is real”. Iran had long used ambiguity as a strategic buffer, but these strikes may force its leadership to consider adopting more direct deterrence models like those employed by North Korea.
U.S. officials have responded to growing speculation by warning Iran against developing nuclear weapons and restating their commitment to regional stability. State Department spokesperson Laura Kennedy warned on Wednesday: “The United States will not tolerate nuclear escalation,” saying there was still time for Tehran to choose diplomacy over conflict.
Israel, however, remains staunchly opposed to Iran acquiring nuclear arms; Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel will act “preemptively and decisively” to block this development regardless of international opinion.
These renewed tensions come at a time when the region is already grappling with numerous flashpoints, including Gaza conflict and proxy battles in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq.
Should Iran adopt an entirely different nuclear doctrine, it could signal a seismic shift in Middle Eastern security dynamics–one which increases both proliferation risk and direct confrontation.